Oscars 2025: Way-Too-Early Predictions for a Wide-Open Awards Season
Breaking Down the Most Unpredictable Race in Recent Memory
It is officially December, which means the final push for awards season is in full swing. Over the next few weeks, studios and distributors-big and small-will release their final awards contenders, many in limited releases with wider rollouts scheduled for early next year, to meet the Academy Awards consideration deadline. While I still haven't seen a few major contenders (Sing Sing, The Brutalist, Babygirl, A Complete Unknown, and hopefully Nosferatu), I thought it would be fun to make some early Oscar predictions. Whether I look back on this list and laugh at my folly or revel in my incredible foresight, we'll find out when the official nominations are announced on January 17, 2025.
In stark contrast to last year's awards race, which felt mostly settled by this point, the competition for the 97th Academy Awards feels more wide open than ever. The recent Gotham Independent Film Awards delivered a litany of upsets and surprises, and the Wicked phenomenon shows no signs of slowing down. This year, more than any other in my 25 years, feels like the most exciting awards race to speculate on because, for once, there are no surefire locks in place months ahead of time. So, here are my way-too-early predictions for what might be the most unpredictable awards race I've ever witnessed.
For the sake of brevity (and my fleeting holiday-season sanity), I'll focus on the above-the-line categories.
With no clear front-runner for Best Picture, I’ve hedged my bets with a cautious three-way tie among the most likely winners. Anora appears to have the most enthusiasm behind it, but it’s not the kind of film the Academy typically awards Best Picture, which leaves room for a sweeping American epic like The Brutalist to steal the spotlight. Then there’s the politically charged Conclave, which may gain momentum in the wake of our recent presidential election.
While Wicked’s box office success and cultural impact cannot be ignored, the Academy has a history of rewarding the final chapters of stories (The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King comes to mind), so fans may have to wait until Wicked: Part Two for a real chance at the top prize. For similar reasons, I’m not ready to count out Dune: Part Two. While conventional wisdom suggests Wicked has eclipsed it as the big commercial contender, the Academy may yet recognize Denis Villeneuve’s monumental efforts. Lastly, though I’d love to see a genre film like The Substance or Nosferatu sneak in, the Academy’s reluctance to reward horror makes an international entry like The Seed of the Sacred Fig more likely.
This feels like Sean Baker's year, though Brady Corbet could upset if The Brutalist lives up to expectations. Edward Berger seems like a lock, and Denis Villeneuve's overdue status makes him hard to ignore. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez) is a possibility, but the film's backlash may hurt his chances. RaMell Ross, fresh off a Gotham win, deserves recognition for his staggering work on Nickel Boys.
Colman Domingo remains the frontrunner despite A24’s mishandling of Sing Sing. Adrien Brody could challenge him, though his previous Oscar win might work against him. Ralph Fiennes, a perennial nominee, could finally get his due. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Daniel Craig (Queer) round out a strong category.
This category feels like a lock for Mikey Madison. Karla Sofía Gascón’s historic nomination as the first trans woman in this category seems likely, though a win may be out of reach. Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman are safe bets, while Cynthia Erivo could benefit from Wicked’s momentum. Demi Moore (The Substance) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) remain dark horses.
Kieran Culkin is the frontrunner, but Guy Pearce could upset if The Brutalist gains traction. Clarence Maclin’s chances depend on Sing Sing’s re-release strategy. Yura Borisov (Anora) is a safe bet, and Denzel Washington could earn his 11th nomination in a relatively thin category.
Zoë Saldaña leads the pack but faces potential competition from Ariana Grande (Wicked) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist). Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) remain strong contenders. Isabella Rosseillini (Conclave) could surprise, but her limited screen time may hurt her chances.
Sean Baker and Brady Corbet’s films dominate this race, but *A Real Pain *could win if the Academy spreads the wealth. Mike Leigh (Hard Truths) and The Seed of the Sacred Fig represent dark-horse contenders.
This category is tightly contested between Conclave, Sing Sing, and Nickel Boys. The outcome may hinge on other wins—if one takes an acting prize, another might claim screenplay
The Wild Robot feels like the frontrunner, but Inside Out 2—the year’s highest-grossing film—could pull an upset. International entries (Memoir of a Snail, Flow) and stop-motion darling Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl round out a strong field.
This year’s Oscar race is thrillingly unpredictable, and while my predictions may miss the mark, one thing is clear: 2024 has been a great year for film. Who do you think will take home Oscar gold on March 2nd? Jump into the Discord and let’s discuss!
David Lee
Published December 7, 2024